The cycle continues

Since coming back to Guatemala after a month away I've been struck by the way the same things seem to keep happening...

Another bank went bust - the Banco Comercio - due to the intervention of the national banking regulator. Like Bancafe last year, this was again because of high-risk offshore investments, and again the investors will be unlikely ever to see their money again.

El Periodico managed to create a big scandal out of nothing when it made veiled accusations that the UN Development Program was involved in corrupt government contracting. In fact they produced no evidence of this, other than the fact that UNDP does indeed manage some large internationally funded projects, and that the funds for these are of course channelled through the organization. As someone commented, it was as if the journalist re-used the copy from last year's scandal involving the International Organization for Migration, and changed the names. Its a pity they put so much energy into beating up non-existent issues when there is so much actual corruption in every area of public life. But it is easier to target foreign organizations. Apart from anything else, they don't make death threats when they get bad press.

The Constitutional Court suspended the operation of a new tax clause intended to fund old-age pensions for people without other retirement funds. The government has said they are looking into how they can now find the funds to start the scheme.

This is the year of Guatemalas' Presidential and Congressional elections, so in reality very little is going to get done between now and November. Already senior public administrators have been resigning en masse so that they can run for election. They are being replaced with caretakers until the end of the year, who will then be replaced by appointees of the new government from January 2008. As with some other Latin Amercian countries, it appears there's no such thing as a professional civil service. All is politics, so each time there's a new President there's virtually a clean sweep, losing organizational history and requiring the reinvention of the wheel every four years (or really 3 + 1).

If the last election year in 2003 is anything to go by, there is also likely to be an increase in street protests and general violence, culminating in the week prior to the November elections. Many private schools will schedule a week's closure at that time (government system schools will already be on vacation), both for reasons of security and logisitics - ie you can't get the buses through when the streets are blocked.

At this stage few Presidential candidates have emerged, but a couple have been on the stage for some time. One of them is Otto Perez Molino, a conservative of the Patriotic Party (Partido Patriota). He is running on a a platform of 'urge mano dura', ie push for the hard-handed approach to criminal violence. It is easy to see his appeal, as personal security is the major issue for middle class and wealthy Guatemalans, as well as for many poor Guatemalans trying to live and make a living in areas run by organized criminal gangs - the 'maras' or 'pandillas'. Plausible estimates put the number of private security personnel at 100,000 compared with 20,000 police in Guatemala, in a population of 12 million. It is natural that this is important to people. After all, what is the use of civil liberties and other human rights if there is a real daily threat to your right to life? But the problem is that the hard handed approach doesn't seem to have worked anywhere in the world (with the possible exception of NYNY under Guiliani?). First of all it takes huge amounts of resources - a large well-trained and 'clean' police force, an efficient and non-corrupt system of criminal justice, and a very capacious and secure prison system, as well as human rights protections for those who suffer abuse of process (though some may think this is an optional extra). I'm afraid it is pretty clear Guatemala is lacking in all of these fundamentals. Besides, cracking down on organized crime is only going to work if it goes right to the top and as long as it doesn't do that, and as long as there are hoardes of unemployed, poor young men with nothing better to do than join the gangs, the source of the problem is not going to go away.

So what would my Presidential campaign be? "OK folks, its time to pay some taxes! And what will we do with them? We'll educate all your kids - provide universal access to primary, secondary, technical and university education - support your old folks, build hospitals and community health centres all around the country, train and resource your police force, create an extensive, efficient and incorruptible judiciary, wrest control of the prison system from the criminal gangs, cut back on military spending, regulate fireams, introduce a proper system of land ownership and land use regulation in the regions (and a spot of redistribution while we're at it), enforce minimum standards for employment conditions and wages, establish mechanisms to appeal against race, gender and other discriminatioon... ummm anything else?'

I'm starting to sound familiar to myself....
Would anyone vote for me I wonder? Evo Morales perhaps? No, wait, he's in Bolivia...

Mariposa Pesada